The article "25 Things We Think Will Happen in 2025" from Vox presents predictions about significant political, economic, and social events expected in 2025, generated by the Future Perfect team. The predictions range from tariffs and Trump's influence to potential developments in artificial intelligence and global conflicts. Each prediction is accompanied by a confidence probability, indicating the team's expectations of likelihood, with a promise to track the accuracy of these predictions throughout the year. Key topics include tariffs under Trump, education department reforms, ongoing international conflicts, the state of cryptocurrencies, and advancements in technology and healthcare.
Key Points:
- Predictions Format: Predictions include probabilities to indicate confidence levels.
- Tariffs and Trade: Anticipation of major tariff legislation, especially concerning Trump's pro-tariff stance.
- Education Department: Doubts about Trump's ability to dissolve the Department of Education.
- Healthcare: Skepticism regarding the repeal of the Affordable Care Act.
- Federal Reserve: Jerome Powell is predicted to continue as Fed chair with high probability.
- International Affairs: Expectations for a ceasefire in Ukraine and Iran potentially acquiring nuclear capabilities.
- Technological Developments: Predictions about artificial general intelligence (AGI) claims and increases in electric vehicle sales.
- Cultural Events: Speculation on potential sports gambling scandals and music award outcomes (e.g., Charli XCX winning a Grammy).
- Future Monitoring: The team commits to tracking the predictions and reporting outcomes at the end of the year.
Link to Article
Episode