Mastering the Art of Risk A Journey Through Forecasting and Decision-Making
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Your new book is titled On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything. How do you define “risk” in contexts as diverse as financial markets, political forecasting, and personal decision-making?
In your experience, what common cognitive biases most often derail our ability to assess and embrace calculated risks?
Can you walk us through a prediction you made that seemed almost too risky at the time—but ultimately paid off? What did that teach you?
During the COVID-19 pandemic, you applied forecasting models in public health. Which lessons from that period do you think are most under-appreciated today?
How do you balance the rigor of data-driven models with the role of human intuition when making high-stakes forecasts?
“Black swan” events are by definition hard to predict. Do you believe they’re truly unforeseeable, or are there early warning signs we can learn to spot?
The world of political polling has gone through seismic shifts in recent election cycles. What innovations or methodologies give you the most confidence in future polls?
How should data scientists and journalists communicate uncertainty to the public in a way that’s honest but doesn’t sow paralysis or cynicism?
Your work often involves aggregating multiple models. What’s your rule of thumb for deciding when to rely on a single best model versus an ensemble approach?
Looking ahead, which emerging technologies or data sources—like real-time social media analytics or AI-driven sentiment analysis—are you most excited about for improving forecasts?
For young analysts and aspiring forecasters, what’s one piece of counterintuitive advice you wish someone had given you at the outset of your career?
Finally, when you reflect on the biggest forecast failures you’ve encountered—whether your own or others’—what patterns do you see, and how should we learn from them? Link to Article
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