Welcome to today's podcast! We’re diving into a recent report from Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, who warns of empty shelves and a looming recession. Slok predicts a "voluntary trade reset recession" with a staggering 90% certainty, attributing this to decreasing container ship flow from China to the U.S.

He states, “Expect ships to sit offshore, orders to be canceled, and well-run generational retailers to file for bankruptcy.” With mid-May approaching, he expects the movement of goods to halt, resulting in empty store shelves and significant layoffs by early June.

Slok highlights the concerning decline in consumer and corporate confidence, noting that nearly 70% of Americans are worried about job loss. “The administration inherited an economy with strong growth,” he writes, yet the sudden imposition of high tariffs is harming small businesses, which struggle to absorb these costs.

While Slok lays out a potential path to prevent this downturn through negotiations with neighboring countries, he warns, “If the current level of tariffs continues, a sharp slowdown in the U.S. economy is coming.” Stay tuned for more updates on the economy in our next episode!
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